Populist attitudes, anti-technocratic attitudes, and Covid-related conspiracy beliefs across Europe

This paper focuses on the puzzle of how what could have been initially regarded as a decline in populist support became compatible with widespread conspiracy beliefs during the Covid crisis. Analyzing survey data collected in 16 countries in June–July 2021, we explore how support for Covid conspiracies is embedded in the attitudinal map of individuals and offer three contributions to the literature on conspiracy beliefs and populism. First, we employ an original scale for measuring conspiracy beliefs benchmarked both on a general conspiratorial mindset item and on a non-conspiratorial item. Second, building on the multidimensionality of the concept of populism and its empirical distinction to neighboring anti-technocratic attitudes, we employ a new scale developed and tested by Bertsou and Caramani (2022) that allows us to highlight the differential role that these attitudes play into conspiracy beliefs. Third, we inquire into the role played by previous factors associated with populist attitudes, such as trust and ideology, but also understudied ones such as performance evaluations and (dis)satisfaction with the management of the crisis at the domestic and at the EU level. Our results show that conspiracy, populist, and anti-technocratic attitudes are highly prevalent and related to each other, despite an initial "rally” effect in the beginning of the pandemic. Furthermore, government and EU performance in the crisis matter, net of trust and ideology, playing a moderating role in the populism–conspiracy nexus. © 2023, The Author(s).

Emergency politics, mass sentiment and the EU during Covid

During crises, do emergency politics impair the EU polity by alienating Europeans? Recent literature suggests that executive decisions in hard times can spur negative European sentiment, increase polarisation in the public and thus create more problems than solutions. The Covid-19 pandemic offers an ideal opportunity to study this important issue. However, studying mass sentiment towards the EU is mostly constrained by imperfect survey data. We tackle this challenge with an empirical strategy that combines two original data sources: first, we use policy process analysis to identify key EU decisions;second, we leverage Twitter data to measure sentiment. As a result, we can study whether key EU decisions impacted EU sentiment and whether this impact is conditional on the level of EU competence, prior politicisation and problem pressure. We find that EU decisions impact EU sentiment positively and do not polarise it (even among highly politicised decisions). Low prior politicisation and healthcare-related decisions increase the positive impact of EU actions. There is thus no punishment of the EU for acting outside its remit. Our findings have important implications for the politics of polity maintenance in the EU. © 2023, The Author(s).